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Local climate change projections and associated uncertainty in the representation of intense sea level pressure events: The North Adriatic case study

November 18, 2013
Climate variability and change in the Mediterranean basin and in the local sub-basins (such as the North Adriatic) is a subject of increasing interest to people in the region. However, the numerical climate projections available for specific geographical areas such as the North Adriatic basin do not completely agree in the foreseen changes, in particular in the future projections of intense events characterised by large negative anomalies of sea level pressure. The results shown here do indeed suggest that over the North Adriatic region, any change in this type of intense event is uncertain before the mid century using the current generation of climate models. Issues relating to uncertainty in climate projections associated with a multi-model ensemble approach (which is recommended good practice) need to be correctly communicated to end-users and considered when assessing potential changes in risk.

Dell’Aquila A, Calmanti S, 2013, Local climate change projections and associated uncertainty in the representation of intense sea level pressure events: The North Adriatic case study, CLIM-RUN Product InformationSheet: October 2013. Article.

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